Things To Act
Monday, July 19, 2004
FMA Vote
Here is the roll call vote in the Senate.
Of Senators up for reelection, 11 voted yes and 15 voted no.
Of Senators retiring, 3 voted yes and 5 voted no.
This means that possible turnover this November could include 14 yes votes and/or 20 no votes.
If the FMA were a decisive voting issue one way or the other, this could flip the vote to 34-66 (if all the yesses were replaced by Senators opposed) or to 68-32 (if all the nos were replaced by Senators in favor).  This is nonsense, of course, as many of these Senators are safe for reelection.  In addition, nothing stops a Senator from changing his vote later (and with elections every six years, it's surprisingly easy to get away with tacking back and forth on some issues).
The real hope of those who wish to sway the issue one way or the other lies in getting momentum.  If, for instance, pro-FMA forces are able to knock off two or three Senators in the fall, it might persuade some others (particularly who might be up for reelection in 2006) to switch (and vice versa if strongly pro-FMA Senators get knocked off in close contests).
Even so, pro-FMA forces would have a long climb to get to the 67 votes they need.
According to a Volokh poster, three Republicans voting yes on cloture (to close debate, 60 votes needed) would vote no on final passage (to amend, 67 votes needed).
The partisan split in the cloture vote was 45 R for, 6 R against; 3 D for, 44 D against, two D running for President and not bothering to vote.
Incumbents who will have to defend their votes include the following (though I suspect it will make a difference in only a few of these, perhaps including OR, NV, ND, SD, AR, or IN):
Alaska: Sen. Murkowski (R), voted yes.
Hawaii: Sen. Inouye (D), voted no.
California: Sen. Boxer (D), voted no.
Oregon: Sen. Wyden (D), voted no.
Washington: Sen. Murray (D), voted no.
Nevada: Sen. Reid (D), voted no.
Arizona: Sen. McCain (R), voted no.
Utah: Sen. Bennett (R), voted yes.
Idaho: Sen. Crapo (R), voted yes.
North Dakota: Sen. Dorgan (D), voted no.
South Dakota: Sen. Daschle (D), voted no.
Kansas: Sen. Brownback (R), voted yes.
Arkansas: Sen. Lincoln (D), voted no.
Alabama: Sen. Shelby (R), voted yes.
Missouri: Sen. Bond (R), voted yes.
Iowa: Sen. Grassley (R), voted yes.
Wisconsin: Sen. Feingold (D), voted no.
Indiana: Sen. Bayh (D), voted no.
Kentucky: Sen. Bunning (R), voted yes.
Ohio: Sen. Voinovich (R), voted yes.
Maryland: Sen. Mikulski (D), voted no.
Pennsylvania: Sen. Specter (R), voted yes.*
New York:  Sen. Schumer (D), voted no. 
Vermont:  Sen. Leahy (D), voted no. 
Connecticut:  Sen. Dodd (D), voted no.
New Hampshire: Sen. Gregg (R), voted yes.* 
*s may vote no on final passage.

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